Dr. Olympia Liu: 美国大选 Update

Dr.OlympiaLiu 发布于 2012-09-26 06:47 1 楼^#

The current view of the 2012 presidential election. BARACK OBAMA   MITT ROMNEY   343    191 WASHINGTON -- Americans are more confident in the economy than they have been in seven months, an encouraging sign for President Barack Obama with six weeks left in the presidential race. A new survey of consumer confidence rose Tuesday (09/25/12) to its highest level since February on expectations that hiring will soon pick up. And a separate report showed home values rising steadily, signaling sustained improvement in housing. "This is like an opinion poll on the economy without the political parties attached," said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics, a consulting firm. The confidence survey "says people are feeling better. If so, they are less likely to vote for change." The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence shot up in September. The jump surprised many economists because the most recent hiring and retail sales figures have been sluggish. The increased confidence could help explain recent polls that show Obama with a widening lead over Mitt Romney in some battleground states. The consumer confidence index is closely watched because consumer spending drives nearly 70 percent of economic activity. The index jumped from 61.3 for August to 70.3 for September. It remains well below 90, the level that is thought to signify a healthy economy. Economists point to some key reasons why consumers have grown more confident. Stocks are up: The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index has surged nearly 15 percent this year. Gas prices have leveled off after rising for several months. And the broad increase in home prices is likely giving would-be buyers more confidence. When prices rise, buyers don't worry so much that a home might lose value after they bought it. National home prices rose 1.2 percent in July compared with a year ago, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday. That was the second straight month in which year-over-year home prices have increased. Some economists question whether the higher level of confidence is sustainable. They've seen the index spike briefly before since the Great Recession ended more than three years ago. Some say confidence could be affected by negative campaign ads that focus on the economy. But others note that even a weak economy doesn't feel so bad to many consumers once it begins to make steady improvement. "The economy is perceived in relative rather than absolute terms," noted St. Louis University political scientist and pollster Ken Warren. Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo, suggests that former President Bill Clinton might have helped boost confidence with his rousing speech on Obama's behalf at the Democratic National Convention in early September. The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey was conducted Sept. 1-13. Clinton "rekindled memories of better economic times" and assured voters that the U.S. economy was on the right track, Vitner said. The rising home prices could also help Obama's prospects. Prices are rising in many large cities in swing states such as Florida, Colorado, Michigan and North Carolina. Prices have risen 3.6 percent in Tampa, Fla., in the past year, for example. And they're up 5.4 percent in Denver, 6.2 percent in Detroit and 2.2 percent in Charlotte, N.C. A Washington Post poll out Tuesday showed Obama leading Romney among likely voters in Ohio, 52 to 44 percent. The president also had a slight edge in Florida, 51 to 47 percent among those most likely to vote. Obama is also gaining the upper hand on which candidate is better able to handle the economy. Registered voters in Ohio preferred Obama on the economy by 50 percent to 43 percent, and in Florida by 49 percent to 45 percent.